It was to be somewhat expected that the Gorton and Denton by-election was going to be interesting and might be nasty in places bearing in mind that this contest is being seen by many as some sort of referendum on the rule of the Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. There is little doubt from what I’ve seen from polling that Starmer is not just unpopular because of his government’s often woeful policies, but he’s also become something of a lightning rod for public dissatisfaction in how the nation is governed. It’s fair to say that the by-election is turning out to be a bit of a bunfight with not just the major parties campaigning but a whole host of independents and minor parties of Left, Right and the politically indeterminable such as the Monster Raving Loony Party.
As part of this bunfight at the Gorton and Denton corral, Labour are throwing resources at this seat like they were fighting a tight marginal not a seat that in 2024 returned a Labour MP who got 50.8% or 18,555 votes. The second place challenger in 2024 in this seat was Lee Moffit of Reform who got 5,142 votes or 14.1% of voters choosing Reform. This seat is so safe (Tories and Lib Dems got derisory votes last time 2,888 and 1,399 respectively) that in the past Labour could have put up almost anybody with a pulse and no criminal record and they could have been elected in that seat.
Not now though. Labour are clearly going to be squeezed from the left by the Greens and maybe George Galloway’s latest Leftism and Islam centred political vehicle The Workers Party and from the Right by Reform. Reform have hoovered up a whole load of votes that might once have gone to Labour but because Labour are now perceived to be the architects of many of this voting cohort’s problems or perceived problems, it’s doubtful that many of this group would return to Labour. Labour still have some of the Muslim vote in the area probably but the Muslim Vote a group dedicated to getting Islamic concerns or wants pushed forward in politics has urged local Muslims to vote for the Greens. It remains to be seen whether the local Muslim community act like automatons and follow the lead of The Muslim Vote group, or whether they vote differently. The Greens and their candidate, posh pro-trans plumbing student, Hannah Spencer, certainly seem to be trying to court this voting cohort from various things I’ve seen online about the G and D campaign.
On the right hand side of the political aisle in this contest things are also not as rosy as some might have hoped they would be. The Reform candidate Matt Goodwin although a great public speaker and debater will not have things his their own way. He’s coming in from criticism from Labour for not living in the area before the contest but Mr Goodwin was born and brought up in the Manchester area before moving South for work whereas Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, was born in Greece. There’s nothing wrong of course with her being born in Greece but it does show Labour’s hypocrisy in their criticisms of Mr Goodwin’s origins.
This is not going to be an easy fight or an easy win for Mr Goodwin and Reform. The constituency is still likely to have within it a lot of people who no longer feel able to support Labour but will not vote for Reform, where these votes go is anybodies guess, especially if the Labour vote completely collapses. They could go to the Lib Dems but they are not a vote magnet for disaffected voters in this seat as they are in some seats. I doubt they’d choose the Tories both for recent and long distant historical reasons. Those more towards the Left of this group might go for the Greens those more to the right might go one of the large number of Right and Centre Right candidates who are standing for election in G and D. This voting group who won’t vote Labour, Tory or Lib Dem and who might not be completely happy with the policies that Reform are offering might give their votes to one of these other Centre Right or Right parties. For Reform this set of options on the ballot paper might pull votes away from those who might be tempted to hold their noses and vote Reform just to get the Socialists out of the seat. Infighting among the Right candidates could allow the Greens to win this one, despite the Greens woeful record in local government in places like Brighton and Bristol where they’ve either had complete control of a council or as in Bristol play a large role in local governance because they are the biggest party with Labour the next biggest.
There are parties like Advance UK standing here which is a breakaway from Reform led by Ben Habib and who have a high profile candidate in the form of Nick Buckley, the Libertarian Party is standing as is The Social Democratic Party (for clarity I’m a supporter of the aims of the SDP although not a member). These parties are all likely to pull votes away from Reform either because these minor Centre Right and Right parties are offering something that Reform isn’t giving or because, as in the case of the SDP, they have policies rather than mere vibes that Reform have which is becoming a noticeable trait of Reform and one they need to change and change soon.
This is going to be an interesting and difficult contest for all those concerned in standing for this seat. The attacks on the backgrounds of candidates have already started in earnest with the Green candidate being criticised as unauthentic and cosplaying being working class, Reform’s candidate being wrongfully attacked over their connections with the area, Labour’s candidate being attacked for her background and her work history as one of the ‘lanyard classes’ of managerialists. It’s turning out to be a nasty campaign and it’s only just started. There’s groups trying to stir up sectarian voting and others seeing the campaign as a fight between Britons and sectarians which is all contributing to the febrility of this campaign. I do worry that because of the febrility surrounding this by-election that we will end up with candidate and party worker intimidation issues because so many people and so many parties and causes have a lot riding on this contest.
I’m loathe to make firm predictions for this seat as it’s absolutely wide open and not guessable by psephological means using previous election results. Reform could win this but then again so might the Greens. This could be a fight between the Greens and Reform with Labour ending up in third place where the Greens were last time. Or maybe there could be a big surprise and Labour win this one as people choose the devil they know rather than the devil they don’t. The contest is interesting and the result might be equally as interesting.